ks discuss
Office: ICT
FXUS63 KICT 070731
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for elevated storms Wednesday morning across southeast
Kansas, some of them could become strong or severe
- Dry and quiet weather to prevail for Thursday thru the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Quiet weather conditions will prevail today with westerly winds and
drier air overspreading the region. Meanwhile current satellite
water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level low pressure system
continuing to spin over the Dakotas. Models show an embedded short
wave rotating around the southern periphery of this low pressure
system across Nebraska and Kansas for late tonight heading into
Wednesday. This upper short wave induces a strengthening low level
jet and rapid moisture transport over eastern Kansas into a decent
700mb baroclinic zone late tonight/Wednesday morning. This
signal combined with steep mid-level lapse rates,decent elevated
CAPE, and favorable 1-6km shear could spark of severe elevated
convection around daybreak Wednesday morning over far southeast
Kansas or locations just to the northeast in western Missouri
which is supported by increasing HREF model probability of 4hr
max Refl paintball. This upper wave will push another frontal
boundary southward across the area on Wednesday where storms
will re-develop ahead of this front which looks to affect areas
mainly east of southeast Kansas.
Dry and quiet weather conditions look to prevail for Thursday into
the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the region. Long
range models are hinting at next chance of storms possibly affecting
the region on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
the next few hours at KCNU but after 08Z, VFR conditions will
return to all areas of the region. Winds will calm down
significantly as well. No aviation weather impacts are expected
after 08Z.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ELM
Office: GLD
FXUS63 KGLD 070435
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late Tuesday morning
through Tuesday afternoon for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in Kansas.
Relative humidity values in the teens and winds gusting above
25 MPH are expected.
- The next chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon
for the northern two thirds of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Visible satellite imagery shows storms continue to move to the east,
further away from the area. Areas along and east of the
Kansas/Colorado line are mostly sunny to sunny, with some cue
developing over northeastern and eastern Colorado. Expect gusty
westerly to southwesterly winds across the area for the rest of
today, behind the Pacific front, diminishing this evening. Low
relative humidity values (teens to 20s) will also be in place.
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions remain through
around sunset. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8PM MDT
for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Sherman,
Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in northwestern Kansas.
Dry conditions are expected overnight.
A closed low will remain over the western portion of the Dakotas
through the day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a broad, upper trough will
extend west to east from the PACNW to Minnesota and south into the
Tri-State area. A tight pressure gradient and westerly winds will
make Tuesday another warm and windy day across the region. Near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected late
Tuesday morning through early evening, particularly for the southern
third of the area. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into
the teens in the afternoon, with winds gusting above 25 MPH. A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
Wallace, Wichita, Logan, and Greeley counties in Kansas. Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the mid-60s in Colorado, to
approaching 80 in the southern portions of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Wednesday and Thursday, the closed low will drop into central South
Dakota and Nebraska. Wednesday evening and overnight, a few showers
will be possible in the northwestern portions of the area. The
better chance (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
Thursday afternoon across the northern two thirds of the area.
Temperatures will be in the 60s each day for highs and the 30s and
40s for lows.
A more active weather pattern starts beginning Friday as the area
comes under northerly to northwest flow. Heading into the weekend,
there appears to be the potential for a disturbance moving in, which
could bring an additional VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Gusty west to southwest surface winds will continue
through the period.chance for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Gusty west to southwest surface winds will continue
through the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ254.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...024
Office: TOP
FXUS63 KTOP 070501
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1201 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet and mild conditions return Tuesday onward, providing a
much needed break in severe weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
No major changes made to the forecast as a very dynamic upper
trough axis is observed rotating through the western high
plains, progged to eject eastward by late afternoon into the
evening hours. Foci for initation lies along a north to south
oriented dryline boundary with a trailing cold front towards
far western Kansas. Increasing low level moisture ahead of the
boundary near a pseudo warm front is also of note as MLCAPE
values are quickly increasing above 2000 J/KG southwest of ICT.
In addition to the line or broken segment of storms progged to
enter the CWA after 21Z, concern is growing for the possibility
of isolated discrete supercells forming over south central to
east central KS before moving northeast in the 22Z-02Z time
frame. Based on the impressive environment and strong low level
SRH ahead of the dryline, all hazards, including very large hail
(2 inch +) and a strong tornado or two would be likely with any
discrete cells. The more likely scenario and hazard for this
event will be the line of storms that strengthens east into the
early evening hours as the mid level jet max ejects east into
the plains. Short term CAMS have remained consistent in timing
and evolution of a QLCS cluster, including possible storm
mergers along the leading edge that could further increase the
potential for brief, tornadoes. Strong effective bulk shear from
0-3 km and steep mid level lapse rates lend to high confidence
in 70+ mph winds being sustained with the line of storms, in
addition to hail around ping pong ball size and the weak
tornadoes that may form along the leading edge.
Severe storms along with the cold front exit the region by 06Z this
evening, bringing calmer and drier weather to the CWA from Tuesday
onward. There may be a brief wave that passes through the westerly
flow aloft Tuesday evening across far northern and eastern areas,
bringing possible light rain to the area, otherwise rain chances are
minimal throughout the week as the northern and southern stream jets
bypass the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Breezy westerly
wind develops tomorrow late morning and persists through early
evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Jones
Office: DDC
FXUS63 KDDC 070514
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway
283 This Afternoon
- A mainly dry weather pattern will persist for several days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Mesoscale Update...
Storms that formed along the dry line earlier this afternoon are
struggling to rotate and maintain themselves. This may be the
result of a backing wind profile at mid levels that causes an
unfavorable hodograph. The shear profile improves to the
southeast, especially along the Oklahoma state line in Barber
county where there is less mid level backing. The storms over
south central Kansas between 3 and 6 pm will have stronger 0-1
km SRH up to 150-200 m2/s2, which would be favorable for
tornadoes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening as a strong storm system moves through the area. A dryline
has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this
feature this afternoon. Dewpoints ahead of these features will be
above 60F with south southeast winds funneling in increased
moisture. Cape values above 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear above 30
knots will support any storm that forms to quickly become severe.
Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern.
A line of storms have already developed across our northern zones
and should make it out of the area within the next few hours. Storms
farther south will develop by 21Z generally east of Highway 283. Low
level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late
this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance
of a tornado to form. Storms will then trek northeast and into
central Kansas by early this evening and move out of the DDC. In
addition to the storms, low RH and strong westerly winds will be
felt behind the dryline. A Red Flag is in effect to account of this
increase in fire danger. Skies become mostly clear as the storms
move out of the area and continue into tomorrow. A few mid level
clouds are expected tomorrow afternoon into the first part of
tomorrow night before becoming mostly clear by sunrise Wednesday.
Breezy westerly winds are expected through tomorrow, shifting to
more of a northerly direction tomorrow night. Low RHs are also
expected tomorrow afternoon west of Highway 283. Currently a Fire
Weather Watch is issued west of this area and will probably be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning after this initial warning is
expired. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the mid
40s. Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow due to the
downslope winds with highs ranging from the mid 70s across our
northern zones with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere. Lows tomorrow
night look to range from around 40 degrees across far western Kansas
to low 50s across south central Kansas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
A quiet pattern emerges in the long term forecast. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected through the work week with
light northerly winds. There may be a weak disturbance that moves
through the area this weekend. But as of now, no precipitation is
depicted by the NBM. Highs throughout the long term will generally
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Friday then upper 70s to low
80s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 40s with a few low
50s possible across south central Kansas by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Light westerly winds during the overnight will gradually after
sunrise, to the 20 to 26 knot sustained range – and strongest
gusts around GCK at 35 knots. The area is behind an exiting
weather system/cold front that has ushered in drier air and as a
result there won’t be any impacts form ceilings or surface
visibility restrictions – at least during this TAF. There will
be some clouds coming back into the picture toward the end of
the TAF as a weak front comes in late tonight, however all
indications suggest this will be VFR cloud cover based on the
forecast sounding temperatures – dew point depression traces.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Widespread red flag meteorological conditions are expected each
of the next 2 days across the western half of the area. The
area hasn’t been cleared of dry fuels for the season, however
there may be some variability in the greenness withing the
highlighted region. The red flag warning was expanded for all
areas along the highway 23 corridor This Afternoon, with a areal
matching Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Areas along the
highway 283 corridor and eastward are considered too green to
continue warnings for the time being.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
