Office: FFC
FXUS62 KFFC 051755
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
The mid levels will remain active for the remainder of the weekend
into Monday. High pressure will continue at the surface.
500mb trough is located along the SE coast of the US. A weak
shortwave is moving through portions of northern GA currently,
helping to fire some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
This convection may linger until sunrise as it travels east across
areas mainly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Morning convection
could end up delaying any isold/scat convection this afternoon. Any
convection that forms this afternoon will be capable of producing
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Models are progging another shortwave to move through overnight
Sunday into early Monday morning. Thickness values indicate this
could be an MCS type system that moves across northern portions of
the state early Monday. Since the MCS has displayed some run to run
consistency the last couple of days, feel comfortable with going
likely pops up north as this system moves through. The timing of the
MCS may need to be adjusted on later forecasts.
Areas of dense fog have developed across eastern portions of the CWA
this morning. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through mid
morning.
NListemaa
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the region at the onset of
the forecast period beginning Tuesday, leading to a drier and hotter
midweek time frame. PoPs won't be shut off entirely but instead
relegated mainly to far north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday
in the form of isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with highs ranging
mainly from the upper 80s to low 90s, some 8-12 degrees above
normal, though record highs are unlikely to be threatened.
The ridge will flatten by Wednesday night into Thursday while at
the surface a cold front will make subtle southward progress toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As convection initiates near the front
on Wednesday, model guidance continues to indicate the potential for
convective complex(es) to propagate east-southeastward Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. There is thus the potential for at
least peripheral to perhaps more direct MCS impacts to parts of
north Georgia during this time frame, and the possibility for severe
thunderstorms would also concomitantly increase.
The cold front will make more substantial southward progress across
the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with PoPs remaining elevated in
advance of the front. The front then gets a shove into and
across our area Thursday night into Friday, with elevated PoPs
shifting southward across the area in advance of the front on
Friday. The associated severe potential will need to be monitored
Thursday and Friday as well as 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ kts would
support a damaging wind threat, and supportive lapse rates could
also lead to a hail threat.
A much cooler and drier airmass will establish itself in the wake
of the front by the weekend with below normal temperatures likely
to make a return.
RW
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SCT MVFR cigs in areas with more dense cu, otherwise primarily VFR
conds to continue thru the aftn. Low-end chc for isold TSRA
impacts at northern TAF sites from 18-23Z. Expect another wave of
prevailing -SHRA from 09-15/16Z, with window from potential TSRA
from 09-13Z. MVFR vsbys may accompany heaviest rainfall. Cannot
rule out pds of low-MVFR to IFR cigs if overnight pcpn is
weaker/lower coverage... but low confidence. Winds will remain SSW
at 5-8kts during the day, shifting to the SE/light and VRB at
times after 00Z.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.
96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 64 82 63 86 / 30 70 50 20
Atlanta 66 83 65 86 / 40 70 60 20
Blairsville 61 76 60 80 / 40 70 70 40
Cartersville 63 82 62 86 / 50 60 50 20
Columbus 67 88 66 89 / 30 40 30 10
Gainesville 64 80 64 85 / 30 70 60 30
Macon 66 86 65 88 / 10 60 50 10
Rome 65 82 64 86 / 60 60 50 30
Peachtree City 65 85 64 87 / 40 60 50 10
Vidalia 68 86 67 90 / 20 70 60 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...96