fl discuss
Office: JAX
FXUS62 KJAX 060057
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
857 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Daytime convection is quickly weaning at this hour, with a quiet
and mild night expected. Flood warnings do remain in effect for a
portion of eastern Hamilton County until 945PM, as well as a
portion of Marion County northwest of Ocala until 1030PM as a
result of earlier locally heavy rainfall. Patchy and possibly
areas of fog will be likely over the interior late tonight and
towards the morning hours, especially near the I-75 corridor and
into southwestern GA counties where the most rain fell today.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Diurnal heating this afternoon will push East Coast sea breeze
inland to merge with the Gulf Coast sea breeze across inland NE FL
and with PWATs around 1.5 inches, should see scattered
showers/storms this afternoon over most areas with numerous
showers/storms over portions of inland NE FL where merger takes
place. Slow and erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will
lead to locally heavy rainfall as the main storm impact, but still
expect a few strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, hail and
frequent lightning over inland areas where mergers take place.
Activity will fade after sunset and end by midnight with fair
skies overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower
70s along the coast with brief/patchy fog in some inland locations
by sunrise Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday, low level ridge axis will extend from the western Atlantic
waters into NE FL and SE GA. Aloft, trailing shortwave energy from
a southern stream trough moving eastward from the TN valley to the
southern/central Appalachians will move over the area. Above avg
precipitable water levels 1.50-1.75 inches will be in place as
southerly low level flow veers more from the SW through the day
will focus T'storm development along the Atlantic seabreeze as it
moves inland against the SSW surface winds 8-12 mph with SE winds
10-15 mph behind it. The best coverage of showers and T'storms
focus between US-1 and higway301 in SE GA southward towards I-10
in NE FL where the best moisture axis will be, with more scattered
coverage of showers and T'storms elsewhere. Mid level temps near
to slightly warmer than average should limit mid level lapse rates
and prevent a threat for severe T'storms, but locally heavy
rainfall amounts are possible due to weak storm motions along with
a few storms that may produce gusty winds 40-50 mph, small hail,
and frequent lightning. Highs will be above normal into the upper
80s inland with low to mid 80s at the coast. Showers and T'storms
should end in the post sunset/pre-midnight period.
Tuesday, morning lows will begin above normal in the mid to upper
60s over the interior and the upper 60s to around 70 at coast.
Any fog should remain west of the Suwannee river valley. Low level
ridge axis will shift southward into central FL with light SW winds
8-12 mph and little higher behind the inland moving Gulf seabreeze
10-15 mph and along the pinned Atlantic seabreeze confined east of
I-95. Less moisture compared to Monday will be over the area and
limited chances for showers and T'storms expected with widely
scattered T'storms possible. With mostly sunny skies, highs will
be warmer into the lower 90s for most with mid to upper 80s along
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
The period will begin with well above normal temperatures bringing
hot conditions to the area Wednesday and Thursday that may
possibly challenge daily record highs (see climate section) as low
level ridge axis sinks into southern FL. Breezy WSW winds and
drier air under the low level ridge will allow for mostly sunny
skies and highs reaching into the mid 90s along the I-95 and US-17
corridors as the Atlantic seabreeze stays pinned to the immediate
beachfront where highs will rise to the low 90s before the
seabreeze moves onshore. Morning lows will start in the upper 60s
inland and the low 70s at the coast.
Friday, a more potent mid to upper level trough will swing ESE
from the mid MS valley to the interior Mid Atlantic and southern
Appalachians and support the eastward progression of a surface
cold front through the deep south from the lower MS valley.
Enhanced low and mid level flow ahead of the front will boost
moisture levels to above normal with shortwave energy spurring
scattered to numerous coverage of showers and T'storms. Increased
clouds will limit highs into the mid to upper 80s over much of SE
GA and towards the suwannee valley with low to mid 90s again over
the I-95 corridor of NE FL where less cloud cover and lower
showers and T'storm coverage expected until late afternoon into
the evening hours. Morning lows will be muggier in the low 70s.
Saturday, the cold front will sink into NE FL with uncertainty
on whether the cold front will stall or continue moving through
NE FL through the afternoon. Will keep isolated to scattered
showers in the forecast with a few T'Storms possible over the
southern most counties of north central FL. Weak ridging aloft
will move in the wake of a departing trough from the mid MS valley
into the Mid Atlantic/southern appalachians and allow weak high
pressure to shift from the central plains to the TN valley with
lower dewpoints in the 50s and west to NW winds along and behind
the front which will bring a drop in high temperatures with low
80s over SE GA into interior NE FL ranging into the upper 80s over
the St Johns river basin and north central FL. Lows Saturday will
be in the low 60s NW of Jacksonville and mid to upper 60s closer
to the NE FL coast and north central FL.
Sunday, more uncertainty remains on the evolution of the next
upstream mid to upper level trough as it pinwheels from the
upper plains into the Ohio Valley. The GFS model want to develop
a wave of low pressure along the Gulf coast as the front just to
the south quickly lifts north over the area and delivers a swath
of heavier showers over the area while the ECMWF delays the
formation of a Gulf low until late Sunday and places the swath of
showers over the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Will limit
any coverage of showers and T'storms to areas south of I-10 for
now as a compromise. Winds will be light from the WNW. Highs will
be similar to Saturday with low 80s over SE GA and mid to upper
80s over much of NE FL. Cooler lows in the upper 50s inland
expected with low 60s closer to the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Diurnal convection is winding down, with all sites now at VFR. Not
expecting widespread fog overnight, though have included a TEMPO
for VQQ with periods of IFR. MVFR and possibly even IFR cannot be
ruled out at GNV as well, though confidence not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time. Diurnal clouds and
convection are expected again for Monday, with periods of MVFR
possible around late morning to early afternoon, especially at
coastal sites. Enough confidence to also include TS for all sites
Monday afternoon, with a sea breeze wind shift expected from east
to west throughout the afternoon and evening as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
High pressure ridge axis will remain across the local waters early
this week before building south of the local waters Tuesday
through Thursday with an offshore flow developing. Brief nocturnal
surges will develop with offshore wind speeds at 15 to 20 knots
and seas 3 to 5 feet during the evening hours, but overall not
expecting any chance for Small Craft Advisory headline potential
until the next cold frontal passage at the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through
early this week as local sea breezes dominate the surf zone with
breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
With high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, daily
seabreeze circulation pattern will bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the area into Monday. Rest of today,
light southerly winds 8-12 mph prevail with Atlantic seabreeze
bringing southeasterly winds 10-15 mph behind it. Highest storm
chances expected between highway 301 and I-75 where Atlantic and
Gulf seabreezes merge from Marion county north to Osceola National
Forest.
Monday, the Atlantic seabreeze will make a bit less progress
inland with higher storm chances focusing between US-1 and highway
301 in Southeast Georgia south to the Osceola National forest.
Southwest winds prevail Tuesday with drier conditions and only
isolated showers/thunderstorms expected with a pinned Atlantic
seabreeze east of I-95. Dry conditions expected Wednesday with
hotter temperatures into the mid 90s with lower Min RH values, but
still above critical values. Increasing transport winds Tuesday
will create high dispersions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...
Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962
Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962
Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962
Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG
95/2011
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 89 67 91 / 20 60 20 10
SSI 71 83 70 86 / 20 40 20 10
JAX 68 88 67 91 / 20 40 20 10
SGJ 68 86 68 89 / 20 30 10 10
GNV 66 89 65 91 / 40 50 10 20
OCF 67 89 67 91 / 50 30 0 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Office: EYW
Office: MLB
FXUS62 KMLB 060129
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
929 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Isolated storms that developed across east central Florida have
dissipated and storms that formed along the sea breeze collision,
west of Lake County, continue to weaken this evening. Mostly dry
conditions are once again forecast overnight, but as has been the
case the past couple nights, some isolated showers may still be
able to develop over the coastal waters later tonight and continue
through early morning Monday. Some of this activity may be able
to push onshore across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast in
the continued southeasterly flow. Have therefore added a slight
chance of showers across these areas for the overnight and early
Monday morning hours. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy
with mild temperatures, as lows only fall to the upper 60s to low
70s for most locations.
Elevated low level S/SE winds off the surface should prevent any
fog development into tonight. However, a wildfire that developed
near SR-70 close to the border of Okeechobee and St. Lucie
counties may lead to some smoke issues in this area tonight.
Motorists that happen to be driving through this area along SR-70
should be alert and slow down if encountering any rapidly changing
visibilities from any settling smoke.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
VFR conditions generally expected tonight into Monday. Isolated
onshore moving showers will again be possible late tonight
through early Monday morning near to south of the Cape. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will also develop again along the
inland moving east coast sea breeze boundary, mainly across the
interior into the afternoon and through sunset. Any of this
activity will be able to produce tempo reductions to IFR/MVFR, but
rain chances remain low enough to limit any mention to VCSH/VCTS
for now. SE winds will range around 5-10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Tonight...Southeast winds will continue around 10-15 knots over
the coastal waters tonight, with seas 2-3 feet. Isolated showers
will be possible across the waters overnight.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Mon...Shortwave ridging aloft will quickly push east into the
western Atlc as weak shortwave troughing moves across the FL
peninsula with zonal flow returning. Surface ridging will slide
south across the central FL peninsula during the day. The GFS shows
some drier PWATs moving onto the Treasure Coast, so highest PoPs on
this day (30-40pct) will be located across the I-4 corridor and
northward where there is a bit deeper moisture. Typically 20pct or
less elsewhere across ECFL. Similar high temps as the previous day
with maxes in the M80s along the coast and U80s to around 90F over
the interior; perhaps a couple L90s well inland.
Tuesday-Thursday...The weather pattern will remain consistent
into midweek with high pressure over the western Atlantic settling
southeast of Bermuda and northeast of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a
mid/upper level ridge will build over the Southeastern US with
500mb heights reaching 588-590dm over central Florida Thursday.
Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible (PoPs
~20-30%) across the interior west of I-95 Tuesday afternoon with
the greatest chance for rain/storms where a sea breeze collision
is expected to occur over western Orange, northwest Osceola, Lake,
and Volusia counties. Offshore flow is forecast to develop
Wednesday and become stronger into Thursday which will keep
mentionable rain chances out of the forecast and allow
temperatures to warm above normal each afternoon. Near record
highs are forecast with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s along the coast and the mid to upper 90s across the
interior. Dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s will result in heat
index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will back
onshore each afternoon at around 10-15mph under mostly sunny
skies.
Friday-Saturday...The mid/upper level ridge over Florida is
forecast to breakdown and weaken Thursday evening into Friday
ahead of a major shortwave trough that's expected to deepen over
the Southeastern US into Friday evening. Deterministic models are
in good agreement that a cold front will weaken and move east-
southeast across central Florida Friday night into Saturday.
Isolated showers and lightning storms (PoPs ~20-30%) are forecast
to develop late Friday into early Saturday afternoon. However,
about 1/4th of ensemble members keep the front together as it
moves across central Florida which would likely result in higher
rain chances than guidance currently suggests. At this time, the
primary hazards associated with any storms that develop are brief
heavy rainfall, occasional lighting strikes, and gusty winds.
Breezy west to southwest winds Friday are expected to veer
northwest Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach near
records again Friday with temperatures in the low to upper 90s.
Lows are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Afternoon-Tonight-Mon...Few showers over the local waters this
afternoon and see no reason why this trend won't continue tonight,
esp over the Gulf Stream. ESE/SE winds 10-16 kts with some higher
gusts will diminish a bit overnight-daybreak to 7-12 kts areawide.
Similar speeds into Mon, but expect a little stronger/gustier
onshore component along the coast surrounding sea breeze formation
and march inland. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and up to 4 ft offshore
at times.
Tuesday-Thursday...High pressure will remain in control over the
western Atlantic. East to southeast winds at 10 to 15kts will
veer offshore overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, then back onshore
in the afternoon Wednesday, as well as Thursday and increase into
the afternoon at 15-20kts. Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft
with up to 4ft Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Increasing heat and slightly drier conditions this week will
produce min RH values falling to 30-35% for much of the interior
by mid-week. ISOLD lightning storms will be possible this evening
inland and again on Mon over the interior late day/early evening.
Isold showers near the coast in the mornings but widespread
wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so
further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will gradually warm
each day, reaching the mid 90s across the interior by Wed and
continue Thu.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 85 68 89 / 10 20 0 20
MCO 70 89 69 92 / 10 30 0 30
MLB 71 84 69 87 / 20 20 0 10
VRB 70 86 67 88 / 20 20 0 10
LEE 71 89 70 92 / 20 30 0 20
SFB 69 89 69 92 / 10 30 10 20
ORL 71 90 70 92 / 10 30 0 30
FPR 70 85 66 88 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 052358
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across most of the region through much
of the evening underneath scattered to broken mid level cloud
decks and a few transient lower level stratocumulus clouds. We do
anticipate MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop across portions of the
western FL panhandle and south central AL around or shortly after
06.06Z and then across most of the rest of the forecast area
between 06.08Z-12Z. There is also potential for patchy fog
formation with visibility reductions to IFR or lower thresholds
across the western FL panhandle and interior portions of south
central and southwest AL, mainly after 06.06Z through around
06.13-14Z Monday morning. VFR should then prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with southerly winds increasing
to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts over 20 kt late Monday morning
into Monday afternoon. /21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across inland
areas through late this afternoon then fade away after sunset.
Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is possible tonight
which will clear around daybreak on Monday. A weak shortwave will
pass to our northwest on Monday, providing enough lift for more
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest
coverage will be northwest of I-65 where the greater lift will be.
Outside of isolated to scattered convection, it will remain warm
with highs on Monday in the mid and upper 80s inland to low to mid
80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and
upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13
SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Weak upper level ridging will begin to build into the Gulf Coast
on Tuesday while a persistent onshore flow continues to advect
moisture into the region. This pattern will result in another
round of isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly for
interior areas on Tuesday. Any convection that develops should
generally follow a diurnal pattern with activity tapering off
through the evening. By Wednesday, the upper level ridging becomes
more defined and the associated subsidence will keep conditions
dry through the day. Temperatures will be on the rise through the
middle of the week with highs reaching into the middle and upper
80s on Tuesday and the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday
afternoon. These temperatures combined with the humid conditions
will allow heat index values to rise into the 93-98 degree range
on Wednesday so it will feel even warmer than the ambient
temperature. Overnight lows will also be rather warm. Lows Monday
night will fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s with temperatures
lingering in the lower 70s for most locations on Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. /14
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
The pattern will begin to change towards the end of the week as a
late season cold front approaches and moves into the region.
Upper level ridging quickly slides east on Thursday as a longwave
trough pushes out of the North Central states and swings over the
eastern US on Friday. This will result in zonal flow with a few
embedded impulses becoming more northwesterly as the base of the
trough moves over the Southeast on Friday. Down at the surface, a
low pressure will lift northeastward across the Midwest and into
the Great Lakes region with it's associated cold front expected to
push through the area Thursday night into Friday. Current
guidance has trended a bit faster with the overall progression of
this system, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. The
better forcing is expected to remain to our north, but given that
there will be plenty of instability and increasing shear across
the area, we could see a few strong to perhaps severe storms
during the Thursday evening into Friday timeframe with gusty
winds and hail being the main concerns. Drier and cooler
conditions are anticipated Friday night behind the front. As we
head into the weekend, the deterministic guidance begins to
diverge with regards to the location frontal boundary and
lingering rain chances. For now, have maintained mostly dry
forecast through the weekend. Temperatures will also be notably
cooler with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the
50s and lower 60s. /14
MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 85 71 86 72 88 73 88 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 20
Pensacola 71 83 72 84 73 85 75 85 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 20
Destin 71 81 73 82 74 83 76 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 67 88 67 89 69 90 71 90 / 10 20 0 20 0 10 0 40
Waynesboro 67 89 68 89 70 92 71 90 / 10 30 0 30 0 0 10 40
Camden 66 87 67 89 70 91 70 88 / 30 20 0 30 0 10 10 50
Crestview 65 88 67 87 68 89 70 89 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Office: TBW
FXUS62 KTBW 060033
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
833 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Made a few tweaks to the short-term forecast to account for the
latest radar trends this evening. Similar to last night, a broken
band on showers and storms is generally along and to the east of
I-75 from Sumter County south into parts of E Hillsborough and
far W Polk counties in WCFL. Convection looks to be attempting to
fire in parts of SWFL as well currently, as the sea breeze
collision appears to have occurred in areas further south. Expect
a few hours of showers and storms to linger for those areas as
well before overall trend of weakening area wide occurs later this
evening into the early overnight hours. Partly cloudy skies
prevail for the remainder of the overnight period with mostly
light and variable to E-SE winds and lows once again in the mid
to upper 60s, with immediate coastal areas as high as the lower
70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Adequate moisture and heat today will result in some seabreeze
shower and storms mainly late this afternoon and into the evening
hours.
As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead.
This will help to suppress any shower active that might want to
form in the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in hot
days without the help of clouds and storms to cool things down.
High will slowly climb day to day with the peak being Wednesday
through Friday where highs could reach the mid to upper 90's
inland.
As we go through the weekend a cold front will push through the
area helping to cool temperatures back to average with high in the
upper 80's to around 90 degrees. A few showers will be possible
with the front but for the most part models are keeping it dry as
it pushes through.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Evening convection with associated restrictions currently a
concern for a few hours for LAL and southern terminals as sea
breeze collision induced showers and storms are likely through
around 02-03Z before diminishing. Kept convective mention for
initial few hours for TPA/PIE, however, threat currently appears a
bit less for those terminals. Winds diminish to light and variable
to E-SE overnight before increasing out of the SE in the morning,
shifting to SW in the afternoon and eventually W-NW for northern
coastal terminals during the evening. With a similar but slightly
less active evolution on the table for Monday, guidance still
reflects a bit of uncertainty for overall convective impacts,
therefore introduced a PROB30 group for northern terminals and
excluded mention for southern terminals for this cycle, pending
further evaluation during subsequent cycles.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
High pressure will be over the are for Sunday and through
the week. This will lead to lighter winds generally staying below 10
kts through the period. The best chance to see any storms will be
this evening as storms push off the west coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be
possible today. For the work week high pressure will push over the
area which will stop any shower activity from developing and helping
to dry us out. The driest days look to be Thursday and Friday where
RHs look to get into the critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 88 73 90 / 30 20 0 10
FMY 69 91 71 91 / 40 20 10 20
GIF 70 92 70 93 / 30 20 0 20
SRQ 70 87 72 90 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 67 90 65 91 / 30 20 0 10
SPG 74 87 75 87 / 20 10 0 10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana
Office: TAE
FXUS62 KTAE 060121
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
921 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Additional patchy fog was added to the weather grids through the
evening and early morning hours for Monday. This was the only
change made to the forecast this evening as the rest of the
forecast remains on track.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Main highlights:
1) Slightly increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow.
2) Hot weather expected through mid-week, especially Wednesday
and Thursday, with very warm overnight temperatures.
3) Severe weather is possible on Friday from a passing front.
4) Weekend cooldown behind the front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Today's slight ridging shifts eastward tonight as another weak
shortwave trough moves across the Southeast US Monday. Storms this
afternoon will be few and far between, primarily along the sea
breeze, given the drier air in place. Some patchy fog is possible
late tonight and early Monday morning, primarily in the FL Panhandle
and southeast AL. With the slight boost from the shortwave, a few
more showers and storms will be possible on Monday, mostly across
southern Georgia and the FL Big Bend with the highest chances near
the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River. Given good instability, DCAPE
around 600-900 J/kg and a little bit of shear in the presence of the
shortwave, can't rule out some gusty winds and perhaps some small
hail in the stronger storms. Lows tonight will be in the upper half
of the 60s with highs tomorrow near 90 in most spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Very warm weather defines the short-term period thanks to a building
subtropical ridge from the SW Gulf. Large-scale subsidence should
mostly suppress convection. When combined with mid-level height
rises, temperatures should soar to around 90 away from the immediate
coast. A persistent onshore flow keeps a muggy airmass in place,
so expect unseasonable overnight/early morning warmth when low
temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s are forecast. These readings
are anywhere from about 8-12 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Mid-level heights continue rising as ridging further builds across
the region. Models suggest 500-mb heights increasing from to the 586-
588 dm range Wednesday-Thursday, which is around the 75th
percentile, per SPC sounding climo for KTLH. This patterns favors
greater warmth than earlier in the week with inland forecast highs
in the low 90s and heat indices a few degrees higher. There may be
some cooling relief from showers/thunderstorms on Thursday mainly
north of the FL state line from a northern stream upper trough
pushing a front across the Appalachians.
Attention turns to severe weather potential on Friday as the front
pushes through the Tri-State area. The environment should be moist,
unstable, and sheared with favorable upper & lower-level support.
Although we are not under any SPC risk, there is a large 15% area
over the East-Central US in the Day 4 Outlook. If trends continue,
then at least a Marginal (level 1 of 5) could be introduced for
tomorrow's Day 3. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws
near. By Saturday, we are looking at improved weather as we go post
frontal with a much welcomed cooldown in store for us.
High temperatures drop from the mid/upper 80s on Friday to upper
70s/low 80s on Saturday. Widespread 70s for overnight lows are on
tap through Friday, then drop to the upper 50s/low 60s next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Guidance continues to indicate fog overnight (much like the past
few nights) with an overwhelming majority showing LIFR from ECP-
TLH. Last night didnt get quite as low as forecast but will reduce
vsbys to IFR from 08-13Z and watch trends for amendments or lower
further on the 06Z TAFs. VFR at the other sites overnight into
Monday morning. Have PROB30 for TSRA at ABY-VLD that may develop
as a weak trough moves by and seabreeze activates during the late
afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Offshore buoys were reporting southerly winds around 8 kts with
1-2 ft seas and a dominant period of 6 seconds this afternoon.
From CWF Synopsis...Continued favorable boating conditions
expected into late this coming week with persistent south to
southeast winds 10 knots or less and 2 to 3 feet seas. Daily
seabreezes usher an onshore wind along the immediate nearshore
waters. By Friday, a frontal system pushes into the region,
bringing returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds
and seas respond ahead of this feature by approaching cautionary
levels out of the southwest. Northerly breezes at 15 to 20 knots
then arrive in the front's wake on Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Generally south to southwest transport winds of 10-15 mph are
expected over the next several days across the area. Mixing heights
will top out around 4,500-5,500 feet Monday afternoon, then around
5,500-7,000 feet Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
This will result in high dispersions in southeast Alabama Monday,
then across the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will also be possible Monday afternoon, primarily
across southern Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Minimal rainfall expected over the next few days outside of
localized pockets from isolated showers and thunderstorms today and
tomorrow. The next chance for greater coverage of meaningful rain
is Friday when a frontal system pushes through the region. The
latest Day 5 QPF from WPC generally paints a half inch or less
across the Tri-State area, but higher amounts in the 1-2 inch
range are focused over Central MS/AL/GA. These values may slide
southward in subsequent forecasts.
In terms of rivers, Aucilla - Lamont, St Marks Newport, and a few in
the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue to trend
downward. There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 68 89 68 90 / 0 20 0 10
Panama City 70 84 71 85 / 0 10 0 10
Dothan 67 89 68 90 / 10 20 0 10
Albany 68 89 68 90 / 10 30 10 10
Valdosta 67 89 67 90 / 10 40 10 10
Cross City 67 88 67 89 / 10 40 10 10
Apalachicola 71 81 72 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Monday for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...IG3
Office: MFL
FXUS62 KMFL 052330
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Surface high pressure centered near New England and the Canadian
Maritimes. Aloft, a trough extending from an area of low pressure
centered over northeastern Canada will exit into the Atlantic while
a southern stream shortwave trough moves eastward through the
southern Mississippi River valley. The overall pattern will allow
for a persistent easterly wind flow to continue even as the surface
high is pinched east and south to start the week.
Warm temperatures will continue as the moist tropical airmass
continues to hold over the region. With the easterly flow, Southwest
Florida will reach the lower 90s for the afternoon highs and the
Atlantic sea breeze will help keep Southeast Florida in the mid to
upper 80s.
Morning Atlantic showers will transition to inland and Southwest
Florida thunderstorms for the afternoon with the retreat of any
remnant convection back to the coast with the sea breeze. While the
thunderstorms should be more of the garden variety, there is some
cooler air aloft which could allow for some stout convection where
boundary collisions occur.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually
weaken and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in
initially easterly low-lvl flow veering more southeasterly while
decreasing in magnitude. At the mid-lvls, ridging over the GOM
will build NEwrd with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead
by Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge
will flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting
into the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated
cold front will also move towards the area. Low-lvl flow will
veer more SWrly ahead of the boundary on Friday, with the decaying
front moving near or perhaps over the area on Saturday.
In terms of rain chances, Tuesday will feature a similar pattern
to the last several days with isolated activity possible the east
coast earlier in the day and isolated-scattered activity possible
in the Interior and SW Florida later in the afternoon. The
proximity of the ridge should then maintain mostly dry conditions
Wednesday-Friday. Rain chances on Saturday will depend upon the
strength of the frontal boundary by the time it reaches our
latitude. Given that the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our
north, would expect the boundary to be frontolytic by the time it
reaches SFL, so am largely maintaining PoPs only in the 15-30%
range at this time, with the highest chances in the Lake region.
As mid-lvl heights rise and the low-lvl flow veers, first more
SErly and then eventually SWrly by Friday, temperatures will warm
over the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest
stretch of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s,
with mid 90s possible (especially over the Interior). Although
there should some be some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak
heat indices could also reach triple digits for the first time in
2024 for portions of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF cycle. The
exception may be near/over APF, where ISLD/SCT SHRA may allow for
brief sub-VFR conditions. Winds generally ESE around 5 to 10 kt,
with Gulf sea-breeze expected along the Gulf coast tomorrow
afternoon which may affect APF.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Breezy to gusty easterly winds with easterly surges at time,
especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty
winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will
generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or
less across the Gulf waters. During easterly wind surges,
conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk
may remain elevated through at least early week, especially
across the Palm Beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 74 84 75 86 / 0 10 10 20
West Kendall 71 86 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
Opa-Locka 73 86 73 88 / 10 10 10 20
Homestead 73 85 74 86 / 10 10 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 74 83 75 84 / 0 10 10 20
N Ft Lauderdale 74 84 74 85 / 0 10 10 20
Pembroke Pines 73 87 74 89 / 0 10 10 20
West Palm Beach 71 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 20
Boca Raton 73 85 73 87 / 10 10 10 20
Naples 71 88 72 89 / 60 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...SRB
