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Office: EKA
FXUS66 KEKA 291238
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
538 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Stratus and low cloud cover will continue to clear out
through the morning. Mild pleasant weather is expected today with
colder temperatures expected overnight into Tuesday. Offshore flow
and high pressure will promote warming and drying for the interior,
late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Low clouds and stratus have already begun to
dissipate as drier air aloft is being infused into the area via high
pressure, bringing subsidence and pleasant weather by the late
morning. Skies are likely to clear as subsidence influences the
region. A week inversion can be observed on model soundings,
further encouraging mild and pleasant weather as winds mix down. The
previously mentioned Pacific high will continue the ridging pattern
locally with a meridional flow as it interacts with a mid level
trough, to the north of our CWA. A steep pressure gradient, with
perpendicular alignment to the coast, will accelerate northerly
winds in this meridional flow pattern bringing gusty winds to bear on
the Mendocino coast and the interior. Anomalously high winds are
being signaled by the ensembles and EFI, for coastal areas south of
Point Arena and south towards the SF bay area.

Drier air aloft and clearing out of sky cover will allow more
radiative cooling over the next few days. This will enhance the
probability of frost this morning in Trinity and N Mendocino
counties, for which an FR.Y has been issued. These conditions will
continue dropping temperatures towards freezing late tonight into
Tuesday morning and are expected to spread into the Humboldt and Del
Norte interiors. A Freeze Watch has been issued to cover these
conditions as NBM indicates a probability of 50-75% for temperatures
falling <32 degrees Tuesday morning.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, gusty northerly winds are expected as
the pressure gradient tightens considerably along the coast.
Clearing skies and increasing offshore flow early Wednesday will
promote widespread warming and drying across the region, especially
in the interior. RH values currently forecast to drop to 30% in
interior Mendocino, Trinity and Lake Counties. Models are still
without consensus on high valley temperatures Thursday and Friday -
right now NBM only has >50% probabilities in southern Mendocino and
Lake counties. Regardless, an overall warming trend is expected with
highs in the 70's. /JM /EYS

&&


.Aviation...An upper level trough is bringing a few showers to the
area this morning, however VFR conditions are in place at the TAF
sites. These may briefly lower conditions this morning. Some low
clouds are in place in many of the valleys of Humboldt and Del Norte
counties. Later this morning and into the afternoon as the trough
moves out winds will become breezy, especially in Mendocino and Lake
counties. This evening and tonight winds are expected to diminish,
but this may be slower than usual. Tonight a few clouds are possible
in the valleys of Humboldt county near the coast, but the taf sites
and most other areas should remain fairly clear. MKK

&&

.Marine...Northerly winds have started to pick up in the southern
waters, mainly near Point Arena and just downwind of Cape Mendocino.
Gusts close to 30 kt are occurring in some localized areas.
Elsewhere winds are only 5 to 15 kt. Wind driven waves have started
to increase with 5 feet at 6 seconds being reported at the buoy off
Point Arena. The northwest swell is currently around 6 feet at 12
seconds. The winds will increase some this afternoon, but mainly
just south of Cape Mendocino. A small craft advisory has been issued
to highlight that.

Tonight and Tuesday winds are expected to remain fairly similar to
today. Tuesday night and Wednesday winds are expected to start
increasing as high pressure finally starts to build into the eastern
Pacific. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for the
northern waters and gales are possible in the southern waters.
Thursday and Friday winds are expected to gradually diminish as
another weather system approaches the area. The swell is expected to
get reinforced on Tuesday peaking 8 feet at 12 seconds. This swell
is expected slowly diminish through the week. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     CAZ102-105>108.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ107-108-
     110-111.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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Office: HNX FXUS66 KHNX 290941 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 241 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes valid from 4 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Tuesday morning. 2. Strong wind gusts are likely across the Mojave Desert Slopes from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. 3. High temperatures will change little through Wednesday, remaining around climatological averages for this time of year. 4. Warming conditions are expected late in the week with highs around 8 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday. Probabilities of exceedance for 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley are around 25 to 50%. && .DISCUSSION... A dry northwest flow aloft continues with upper ridging over the Eastern Pacific and a long wave trough across the western CONUS. A short wave trough is located just off the Pacific Northwest coast. A steady onshore flow pattern has been producing breezy conditions across the San Joaquin Valley with strong wind gusts along the Mojave Desert Slopes. The wind is waning at this time but will pick up again this afternoon. Probabilities for gusts of 45 mph along the Mojave Slopes generally range from 60 to 90%. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 4 PM this afternoon through 6 AM Tuesday morning. High temperatures topped out right around climatological normals on Sunday afternoon. Little change is expected through Wednesday then warming to around 5 degrees above normal on Thursday. More warming pushes maximum temperatures to around 10 degrees above normal on Friday. Here are probabilities for a high temperature of 90 degrees or higher for locations in the San Joaquin Valley on Friday. Merced 16% Hanford 41% Madera 31% Visalia 41% Fresno 41% Porterville 36% Reedley 21% Delano 46% Lemoore 41% Bakersfield 46% Cluster analysis shows an upper trough over the west coast next weekend but with significant strength and timing differences. Temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees on Saturday but still remain slightly above normal. Further cooling Sunday drops high temperatures to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION... Strong wind gusts from 35 to 45 knots will redevelop along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County this afternoon until Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford
Office: LOX FXUS66 KLOX 291740 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1040 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...29/835 AM. Mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures will prevail across the region through this week, although some night through morning coastal low clouds and fog can be expected at times. Gusty northwest to north winds will prevail over the mountains and deserts at least through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...29/834 AM. ***UPDATE*** A weak eddy brought low clouds and fog into parts of the L.A. County coast early this morning. Low clouds and fog also formed over interior areas of northern SLO County as well as the eastern Santa Ynez Vly. These low clouds are forecast to dissipate by late this morning. Otherwise, sunny skies covered the forecast area this morning which will continue thru this afternoon. Northerly pressure gradients increased early this morning helping to keep gusty NW to N winds over portions of the SW SBA County mtns and coast, VTU County mtns, L.A. County mtns along the I-5 Corridor, and the western Antelope Vly foothills into the Antelope Vly. Advisory level wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph at times can be expected in these areas today, especially this afternoon, and Wind Advisories will continue. Breezy to gusty W-NW winds will also affect much of the coast and adjacent vlys thru this afternoon, strongest on the Central Coast where winds could approach Advisory levels at times. A flat upper level pattern with H5 heights around 576 dam will persist over the area today, helping to keep temps near normal to a few degrees above normal. Highs this afternoon for the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns should reach the 70s to low 80s, with the warmest temps in the western San Fernando Vly. ***From Previous Discussion*** Not much going on for the next three days. Winds will be the only concern. The state will be under NW slightly cyclonic flow through the period with hgts near 576 dam today and Tue falling to 574 dam on Wed. There will be continuous offshore flow from the north through the three day period peaking near 5 mb early Tuesday morning. There will be weak onshore flow to the east both today and Wednesday but it will be weakly onshore on Tuesday. Skies will be mostly clear through the period. The only possible exceptions will be some night through morning low clouds over two small areas. The first area will be the western portion of SBA county where west winds will create back building low clouds in the Santa Ynez valley which will spread back into the coastal plain. The second area will be the LGB-LAX area where a weak eddy may bring some low clouds up from the south in the early mornings. As mentioned above winds will be the biggest issue over the next 72 hours. The offshore N to S gradients will combine with the northerly upper level flow to produce periods of advisory level winds from now until Tuesday afternoon and beyond into Wednesday. The winds will peak tonight as the offshore sfc gradients reach their peak. Due to the diurnal cycle of the pressure gradients there will be lulls in the winds esp in the afternoons and early evenings. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all of the wind advisory informations. Most areas will warm today and Tuesday. Max temps will cool some on Wednesday as the offshore flow relaxes. Most max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the 70s with a smattering of lower 80s in the warmest vly locations. These max temps will be a few degrees either side of normal. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...29/319 AM. The EC and GFS both ensembles and deterministic runs are in decent agreement Thu and Fri. At the upper levels there will be increasing troffiness which would normally cool things, but another round of offshore flow from both the north and east will prevent that and actually warming to the coasts and vlys. On Friday a reversal to onshore flow will bring increased morning low clouds and cooling to the csts and vlys. Mdl agreement wanes sharply for the weekend day 6 and 7 forecast. The GFS and esp its deterministic run is steadfast in its resolve to bring a late season storm to the area. The EC and most of its ensembles just run a broad trof over the area. The GFS ensembles are pretty varied and do not strongly support the stormy scenario. At this time the weekend forecast is biased towards the EC solutions and is dry. There will be a cooling trend each day with the GFS coming in much cooler than the EC. Again the cooling trend has been slanted in the EC's direction. Still need to keep an eye on the evolution of the GFS's fcst and if the EC shows any trend towards a deeper wetter soln as well. && .AVIATION...29/1739Z. At 1719Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep with an inversion top at 2300 ft with a maximum temperature of 17 C. High confidence in TAFs, except for KLAX and KLGB (30% chc of no cigs), KSMO (40% chance of IFR cigs from 12Z-16Z Tue), and KOXR (15% chance of IFR cigs after 14Z Tue). KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of no cigs developing tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF, some uncertainty in wind direction after 04Z Tue. && .MARINE...29/947 AM. For the outer waters, the extended period of gale force winds is expected to continue thru at least Tue night. Swell will continue to be short- period and choppy, with the potential for dangerous breaking waves at west- facing harbors. SCA conds are expected for the outer waters, Wed thru Fri, with a 30% chance of gales persisting into Wed night. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely thru Tue night, with a 25% chance of gale force winds this afternoon/evening. Then, there is a 50% chance of SCA conds during the afternoon/evening hours Wed thru Fri. Seas are expected to be at/near SCA level through Wed. In the SBA Channel, SCA level W-NW winds are expected, particular across western portions, during the afternoon thru late night hours thru Wed. Winds will likely remain below SCA levels for eastern portions of the channel, most of the time through the period. In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level W to NW winds across northwestern portions, mainly from Anacapa Island to Malibu during the late afternoon thru late evening hours today thru Tue. && .BEACHES...29/947 AM. Persistent strong winds and outer water swell heights of 10-15 feet with a 10 second period will lead to high surf (8-12 feet) along the Central Coast this afternoon through Tuesday night. Surf will be highest across northwest-facing beaches. There is a 40% chance of high surf advisory criteria lingering through Wednesday evening. NO coastal flooding is expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 352-353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/Sirard AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld BEACHES...Lund/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...Sirard weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Office: STO FXUS66 KSTO 291929 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1229 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .Synopsis... Mild and dry weather this week. Occasionally breezy. Light precipitation chances return this weekend. && Dry and mild weather will persist through the week as several short-wave troughs pass to the north over broad ridging covering the eastern Pacific and NorCal. Precipitation chances will remain well to the north of the region across the PacNW, though occasional bouts of north to east wind are expected as surface pressure gradient tightens in the wake of each of these waves. The strongest period of northerly winds are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday with gusts of 35-45 mph possible in the Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain with the strongest winds forecast to occur to the northwest of Sacramento along the west side of the valley (NBM probabilities are around 60-80 percent for reaching that range for wind gusts). Difficult driving conditions can be expected and loose objects may blow around. Valley high temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... Some disagreement remains with respect to the exact evolution of a passing upper level trough, but ensembles are coming into agreement on a shift to cooler and wetter weather next weekend into the following week. Prior to this though, mild and dry weather looks to hold on through Friday as a leading shortwave ridge ahead of the trough briefly centers over interior NorCal. This will likely result in the warmest high temperatures of the week, with low to mid 80s in the Valley and 60s to 70s across the higher terrain. As the aforementioned trough moves through or in proximity to interior NorCal, a period of more active weather will be possible next weekend into the following week. Current cluster analysis indicates a 40% chance of a deeper trough on a further southward trajectory moving through NorCal and a 60% chance of a weaker trough on a more northerly trajectory through the Pacific Northwest. That being said, there has been a trend within latest ensemble guidance toward the former scenario in the trough evolution. The former scenario would provide more weather impacts of increasing precipitation chances, breezy to gusty winds, and possible high elevation mountain snow, with the latter scenario providing more limited impacts of showery activity primarily confined to the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent terrain. As a result, there is a fairly broad range of appreciable weather impacts at this time. Regardless of the exact track though, a cooling trend toward near to slightly below normal temperatures is anticipated through the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... Clear skies and VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal over the next 24 hours. Northwest winds in the Valley with sustained surface winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts through 00Z Tuesday. Over the mountains, wind gusts up to 30 kts through 02Z Tuesday. Surface winds decrease to below 12 kts (00Z to 12Z Tuesday) before northerly winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts after 14Z Tuesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Office: SGX FXUS66 KSGX 291546 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 846 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The upcoming week will be warm with dry weather across the region. The marine layer will stay relatively shallow, where low clouds and fog will be primarily closer to the coast and in some western valleys each night and morning through the week. Breezy west winds will occur across mountain and desert regions each afternoon and night through Wednesday. Pockets of breezy offshore winds should develop Wednesday into Thursday. Onshore flow and a cooling trend appears on the horizon by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Coastal low clouds, with fog on the higher coastal terrain, developed this morning in concert with a weak coastal eddy. A weak ridge aloft will bring us warm spring-like weather this entire week as we move from April to May. The jet stream will continue to our north, driving an occasional shortwave trough through the northern part of the country. For SoCal, this appears to maintain some coastal eddy circulation for much of the week, and a corresponding marine layer with varying depths and coastal cloud extent. Copy today and paste Tuesday. What you see in low cloud coverage this morning looks the same for Tuesday. Same for temperatures, which will get into the low 80s in the Inland Empire and the high desert, with 90s in the low desert. Look for seasonal onshore winds through mountain passes and locally into deserts each afternoon and evening, with top localized gusts around 45 mph. A trough to the north will help deepen our marine layer for Wednesday morning, but later Wednesday morning some upper support and offshore surface pressure gradients set up a weak offshore pattern, which lingers into Thursday. Areas through and below Cajon Pass will get some northeast wind gusts, spilling locally into the Inland Empire. Thursday has a more easterly component, favoring San Diego County foothills. Top wind gusts in these localized areas look to be around 35 mph. As you might guess, uncertainty creeps into the outlook toward the weekend. Some ensemble members, mostly from the GEFS, point to a deeper trough this weekend for cooler and breezier onshore weather. A minority of members even show precipitation Sunday. The Euro ENS members indicate less troughing, continued seasonal weather and no chance of precip. Either way, it's nice to have truly spring- like weather. && .AVIATION... 291540Z...Coasts/Valleys...Patchy low clouds with bases 1000-1500 FT MSL across portions of coastal San Diego and Orange Counties through 17z Mon. Areas of reduced vis of 3-5 SM in CIGs. The development of a coastal eddy tonight into early Tuesday morning will lead to a slightly deeper marine layer. Bases will likely start low, similar to this morning as low clouds form between 06-09z Tue with bases between 700-1100 FT MSL, then rising to 1000-1500 FT MSL through the morning hours as the coastal eddy churns offshore. Areas of near- zero VIS/FG where low clouds intersect terrain. Tops will rise from roughly 1500 FT MSL to around 2000 FT. Otherwise, for the mountains and deserts, clear skies with unrestricted vis through Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions through Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...Adams
Office: MTR FXUS66 KMTR 291743 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1043 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the forecast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Quite a different scene as compared to the last few mornings as skies are currently clear across the region. Clear skies will allow for temperatures to reach the upper 50s on the beaches and the mid 70s in the warmest inland valley locations. Strong northwesterly winds will continue today with most locations likely to receive gusts of 25 mph, especially along the immediate coastline and higher peaks. These strong northwesterly winds are also resulting in poor marine conditions. No update needed... && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A relatively benign weather pattern persists featuring quasi-zonal flow across California with weak troughing across the Pacific Northwest states. This will bring a weak/dissipating cold front through the Bay Area with little fanfare, as the primary weather concern remains steady onshore winds. Conditions will be rather breezy along the coast yet again, with peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range. This will have a cooling effect on temperatures there, while inland readings warm during the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s on the beaches to the mid 70s in the warmest inland valleys. Look for patchy coastal stratus development once again overnight with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A subtle ridge over California continues through the work week, with an upper level low passing through the Great Basin. The story of the week will be clear skies and warmer weather with interior valleys seeing highs in the low 80s and the coasts seeing highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The upcoming weekend sees a pattern change with an upper level low coming into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, bringing a weak front through California. The chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday, currently up to 20-30% Probability of Precipitation, has expanded throughout the forecast region, although rain amounts remain light with the higher elevations receiving up to a tenth of an inch of rain. Cluster and ensemble model output also suggest a deeper upper level low coming into the Pacific Northwest during the first week of May, and CPC products continue to suggest cooler temperatures and increased rain chances into the second week of May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR all terminals through the forecast period. Similar to yesterday, the bigger impact will be winds. Strong onshore flow will keep gusty winds over the next 24-36 hrs with a rather mixed boundary layer. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Borderline AWW criteria again today. Yesterday did reach criteria (>35kts), but today's latest probabilistic guidance is less enthusiastic with about 10-20% of exceeding 35kts. Will be watching trends through the afternoon an a AWW may be needed. Of higher confidence will be impacts with crosswinds on the 01s. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Prev tafs have a SCT deck for Tuesday AM. Left that in as ensembles show 20% of seeing a cig. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Hazardous conditions will prevail over the coastal waters through midweek thanks to persistent gusty northerly winds. Gale force winds with gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible over the outer waters and portions of the immediate coast near Point Reyes and Point Sur. The strong winds will result in fresh steep wind waves with heights reaching 10 to 12 feet. Conditions will gradually improve late in the week into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea