az discuss
Office: PSR
FXUS65 KPSR 090007
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
507 PM MST Wed May 8 2024
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Near seasonal temperatures continue through the end of the work
week. There will be a gradual warming trend through the weekend and
into next week, with portions of the lower deserts nearing tripple
digits as early as Sunday. Dry conditions with typical springtime
afternoon breeziness will persist.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Large scale troughing over western CONUS will continue over the next
couple of days, with the low pressure system retrograding back into
Wyoming. A shortwave trough is currently moving through Arizona,
which is leading to some slightly elevated wind gusts this
afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected through the early
evening. Near normal afternoon high temperatures are expected
through Friday thanks to the low pressure system retrograding
back to the west.
The large scale upper-level trough will start to weaken this weekend
and into next week. The trough will weaken enough to allow a ridge
to build into the Pacific Northwest, however, the desert Southwest
will remain under the influence of the weakened trough. This will
allow for a gradual warming trend into next week. Portions of the
lower desert could hit triple digits as early as Sunday, however,
much of the lower deserts are currently forecasted to only max out
in the mid-to-upper 90s this weekend through the beginning of next
week. The NBM gives the Phoenix Metro a 40% chance of reaching 100
degrees on Monday and a 50% chance on Tuesday. Typical springtime
afternoon breeziness with gusts up around 20 mph is also expected to
continue into next week. A slight increase in moisture is expected
on Sunday and for the beginning of next week, however, dry
conditions are expected for our area and any rain showers or
thunderstorms should stay in the high country.
Temperature forecast confidence deteriorates by the middle to end of
next week as ensemble guidance differs on the overall pattern. Some
models show a more potent high pressure building in over the area
whereas other models show a weak low pressure system moving over
the region. For next Thursday in Phoenix, the 25th percentile for
the NBM shows a high temperature of 97 degrees, whereas the 75th
percentile shows a high temperature of 106 degrees. The seasonable
dry conditions are expected to continue through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0006Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Breezy west winds will continue through at least 01-02Z as a dry
cold front moves through. Westerly gusts up to 20-25 kts are
anticipated, with potential for a few peak gusts in the upper-20s.
Winds subside by midnight and shift east by 10-11Z. Winds shift
back west by 16-17Z Thursday. Westerly winds Thursday will
increase up to 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts, in the
afternoon. SKC will prevail.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty N-NW winds at KBLH will gradually subside over the next few
hours, and shift more westerly later this evening/tonight. Light N
winds at KIPL will shift W late this evening and eventually become
variable early Thursday morning. Northerly winds are expected
again at both terminals during the day Thursday. Speeds will
remain light at KIPL, while northerly gusts at KBLH will reach up
to around 20 kts. SKC will prevail.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Typical springtime breeziness with afternoon and early evening wind
gusts of 20-25 mph will persist through the weekend. These breezy
conditions combined with dry fine fuels, and low RHs will likely
create some elevated fire weather conditions. MinRHs will be in the
5-10% across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the
higher terrain. Overnight recovery will be poor and in the 20-40%
range. Seasonal temperature continue through Friday before a gradual
warming trend sets in this weekend and continues into next week. Dry
conditions will also persist into next week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman
Office: TWC
FXUS65 KTWC 082128
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
228 PM MST Wed May 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through the
weekend. High temperatures will be near normal through tomorrow,
then several degrees above normal this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing persists over the western CONUS, placing southern
Arizona under the influence of dry westerly flow. A modest
pressure gradient along with unidirectional flow has brought
breezy conditions today, with possibly a few gustier winds later
this afternoon in eastern areas. Afternoon breeziness will
continue over the coming days, though most days should be a bit
less windy than today. This afternoon's winds will produce near-
critical fire weather conditions as previously advertised with
relative humidity values dropping towards the single digits in
lower elevations.
A low pressure circulation tied to the aforementioned troughing
will dip south through the weekend. This should still mostly
remain to the north of southern Arizona, which will prevent
temperatures from rising too far above normal.
The story next week will be the gradual transition to western
CONUS ridging, which is leading to a warm up in NBM probabilities
through the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
Skies SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds WLY/SWLY at
12-20 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts. SFC diminish to less than 12
kts after 09/04Z with typical lowland diurnal wind shifts after
09/09Z. Tomorrow SFC winds WLY thru Newly after 08/19Z with speeds
between 14-20 kts and occasional gusts to around 25 kts through
end of period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures will continue near be normal
through Friday. Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal this
weekend. This week min RHs values will remain in the single digits
to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens
for the mountains.
Breezy afternoon/early evening winds will persist through
early this evening, becoming light and variable for the lowlands
with local drainages developing after midnight. Winds will diminish
some on Thursday, but breezy to locally windy conditions remain
forecast along the higher mountain ranges.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public...Edwards
Aviation...Tripoli
Fire Weather....Tripoli
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Office: FGZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 082337
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
437 PM MST Wed May 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures will continue through the
end of the week, with near/above afternoon highs returning over
the weekend. Typical spring-like breezes will remain through the
forecast period, with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
across some areas Friday through Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The large area of low pressure that brought the
strong winds to northern Arizona on Monday is now over the Great
Plains. There is also a large area of high pressure off the West
Coast. Arizona is between these two atmospheric features...in a
zonal or westerly flow. The low will slowly fill as it moves
southwest and over Utah by Thursday afternoon. Even though the low
pressure approaches Arizona, our pressure will increase and will
slowly increase our temperatures through the end of the week. Most
of northern Arizona have afternoon highs staying a few degrees
below-normal for this time of year. Will will see afternoon
seasonal southwest breezes for the next few days as well.
By late Thursday, enough moisture and instability returns to
northeast Arizona for a few showers and/or thunderstorms. The low
remains over the area through the weekend with low chances for
showers and thunderstorms remaining into next week...with the best
chances along our Utah and New Mexico border. Again, even with the
low over the area, the surface pressure will increase with
temperatures warming to above average by Sunday for many area.
There will also be areas of smoke from prescribed burns and wild
fires that could reduce the visibility at times this week.
&&
.AVIATION...Thursday 09/00Z through Friday 10/00Z...Widespread VFR
conditions and mainly light winds from variable directions are
forecast. However, northeast winds tonight could become gusty in
some spots, including KSEZ and KGCN. And, visibility reductions
are possible at KFLG, mainly overnight, due to smoke from a nearby
prescribed fire.
OUTLOOK...Friday 10/00Z through Sunday 12/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions and light winds are forecast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible northeast of a KGCN- KRQE line each
day. Areas of smoke and haze are also possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and cool conditions with
breezy afternoon winds are expected for Thursday and Friday.
Anticipate minimum humidity of 10 to 15% each afternoon with
moderate to good recovery by Friday night. Elevated northeast winds,
10 to 12 mph, are likely tonight across the High Country, followed
by west-southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, for Thursday and Friday
afternoons.
Saturday through Monday...Slight chances (10 to 20%) for showers
and thunderstorms are forecast along the UT and NM borders on
Saturday afternoon, extending along the higher terrain of northern
Arizona for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures warm to above average
for Sunday and Monday with afternoon humidity of 15 to 20%. West-
northwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, are forecast each afternoon.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
