Office: LZK
FXUS64 KLZK 060011
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
711 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Showers and storms will linger across the area through the evening
hours before activity starts to exit in the wake of the H500 wave
lifting to the northeast. Some FG development is possible around
daybreak.
Warmer temperatures are expected across the state on Monday with
highs climbing above 80 F in many locations. Little to no precip
is expected earlier in the day and if the sun makes an appearance,
it will feel quite uncomfortable outside given recent rain and Td
values around 70 F. A weak disturbance in the SW flow aloft will
help provide increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon/evening hours.
More widespread severe activity is expected to be focused across
portions of OK/KS from Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
This activity will likely persist in intensity eastward through
the overnight hours and could provide some severe potential early
Tuesday morning across W/NW parts of the state. Behind the storms,
the front will sink south toward Arkansas. Additional
thunderstorms could develop throughout the day Tuesday ahead of
the front as well as along any lingering boundaries in place over
the area. POPs on Tuesday are highest during the morning hours
with lower POPs in place later in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to move out
of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. This storm system
will drag a cold front across the state bringing the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be somewhat of a two prong
event. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Damaging winds
and hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The main
event will come Wednesday evening and night as the front moves into
the state. Instability and wind shear will be much higher on
Wednesday. This will bring a better chance of heavy rainfall, large
hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes.
QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern
Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one
to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with
the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas.
Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will
be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures
will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Sctd convection wl cont to affect parts of central and southeast
AR this evening, with PoPS dcrsg heading into the overnight hrs.
Combo of IFR/MVFR conds wl prevail thru most of the PD, with some
LIFR conds late tngt into early Mon mrng. Some improvement is
expected Mon aftn as low lvl mixing increases. Sctd convection
possible Mon aftn, with VCTS included at all fcst sites.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44
