al discuss
Office: BMX
FXUS64 KBMX 291059
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
559 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024
A fairly dry day on tap today, at least through 1 PM. Rain chances
will be on the increase in the far west during the afternoon as
the line of showers and storms begins to approach the area. A
majority of the models now indicate the initial area of storms
will slide to our southwest, just clipping our southwestern
counties. These short range models show the line reaching the
MS/AL state line by mid-afternoon, with considerable weakening of
the northern portion of the line towards late afternoon as the
low level jet decreases. There may be a 3-6 hour window, in the
early evening with minimal coverage of convection over west
Alabama, then additional convection develops over MS as the mid
level trof axis approaches with steepening mid level lapse rates.
The better coverage of convection will likely occur across Alabama
tonight into Tuesday morning as mid-level lapse rates increase
and a low level jet develops. Some stronger storms are possible
through Tuesday morning as MUCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. The
activity will continue to shift east Alabama through Tuesday
morning, with the rain ending across east Alabama by late
afternoon.
16
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024
Any remaining stray showers should dissipate shortly after sunset
Tuesday night. A surface ridge axis builds in, with clear skies
and light winds promoting favorable radiational cooling conditions
across the northern counties, while still elevated dew points in
the southern counties may be conducive for fog development. Mid-
level ridging builds from the Gulf across the Southeast CONUS
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions and warming
temperatures. A weak shortwave and increase in mid-level moisture
moves into our far western counties late Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night, but shower activity will have a tendency to dry up
as it encounters a drier low-level air mass.
Meanwhile a potent shortwave and surface low moving through the
Upper Midwest Thursday night will send a cold front our way Friday
and Friday night. A weak southern stream shortwave and increase
in mid-level moisture associated with possible MCS remnants will
bring an increase in rain chances, though low-level moisture
return and instability will be lacking. Thus PoPs remain in the
chance category for now. The front will stall out over the weekend
and eventually lift back to the north. Weak waves in quasi-zonal
flow aloft may provide some lower end rain chances as this happens
but there is little model agreement this far out.
32/Davis
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024
VFR conditions expected for the next 9 to 12 hours as a cold
front begins to approach the area. Most of the early activity
tonight into Tuesday will be along an outflow boundary that will
move through ahead of the front. Showers and storms will be
possible at TCL as early as 21z but most likely after 00z. BHM and
EET as early 00z, but most likely after 3z. A shower may be
around ASN and ANB as well after 3z, but best chances will be
after 6z. For MGM and TOI, we will see increasing clouds and
perhaps a shower between 6 and 9z, but the best chances will be
after 9z. Included thunder at the northern sites, but not the
southern sites. .
NOTE: KASN continues to have issues with report the sky
conditions, so added AMD LTD TO WIND VIS in the TAF.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well
above critical values. Rain chances increase this afternoon
through Tuesday. Dry conditions return on Wednesday with RH values
dropping back into the 30s and low 40s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 83 61 79 56 / 10 80 70 10
Anniston 82 62 80 58 / 10 70 70 10
Birmingham 83 63 80 60 / 20 80 60 10
Tuscaloosa 83 63 82 60 / 50 80 50 0
Calera 82 62 80 60 / 20 80 60 10
Auburn 81 64 80 62 / 10 30 50 10
Montgomery 84 64 82 62 / 10 50 50 10
Troy 84 63 82 63 / 10 30 50 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16
Office: MOB
FXUS64 KMOB 291158
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Mostly MVFR to VFR ceilings today, but some localized areas
dropping to IFR at times this afternoon as isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms move into the region from the
west. After a break in any pcpn this evening, showers and storms
will again be possible overnight (especially after 30/06z) when
MVFR and localized IFR conditions will again be possible. Surface
winds primarily south to southeasterly through the period, gusty
at times today. DS/12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
We will finally be looking at a chance for rain today and tonight,
as as upper level ridging slides eastward and out over the western
Atlantic. At the same time, a couple of upper level shortwaves will
move into the Lower Mississippi Valley region and across our area.
The remnants of a MCS that is moving east-southeast across LA early
this morning will move into our area from the west this afternoon in
association with the first shortwave, but will likely be dissipating
as it does so. Even as it dissipates, still looking at about a 40-60
percent PoP over the western half of our forecast area (especially
for our MS zones) by late this afternoon, where scattered to locally
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. There
could be a break in the showers and storms this evening, but
coverages will likely increase again overnight (especially after
midnight) in association with the second shortwave that is expected
to move east across the area when we will again be looking at about
a 40-60 percent PoP across the area.
There are still some discrepancies in the models in both how much
the current MCS remnants hold together as they move into the area
this afternoon, and especially as to the coverage of the possible
overnight into Tuesday activity. MLCAPE values could still increase
up to 500-1000 J/KG, locally 1500 J/KG this afternoon across
southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama this afternoon,
which will be sufficient to support thunderstorms. However, low
level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive
so the overall severe threat remains marginal, and mainly over our
MS zones at this time, per the Marginal Risk from SPC. If the
convective line is able to maintain itself tomorrow afternoon, there
could be a strong or perhaps severe storm tomorrow afternoon capable
of producing damaging wind gusts mainly over our southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties, but confidence in this
potential remains low at this time. Some guidance indicates a
slightly more unstable airmass over the region late tonight into
early Tuesday morning, and some slightly increased shear as well, so
if storms do redevelop overnight into Tuesday with the passage of
the second shortwave, there could be a minimal severe risk (mainly
strong winds) then as well. Will maintain about a 40 percent Pop
across the area during the day on Tuesday.
Highs both today and Tuesday will mainly in the low 80s (with a few
mid 80s over interior MS zones on Tuesday). Lows tonight will range
from the lower 60s inland to the mid and upper 60s closer to and
along the coast (maybe a few lower 70s on the barrier islands).
Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in
deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area
beaches through the early part of the week. The HIGH risk of rip
currents remains in effect through late Tuesday night, and a High
Surf Advisory remains in effect through early this evening as surf
in the 3-5 foot range continues. DS/12
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is well
west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into the
weekend. Shortwave troughs pass Friday into Friday night, then again
Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the
bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs to
northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each
passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to low
end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep
temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the period.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s well inland with around 80
near and along the coast are expected. Low temperatures are expected
to range from around 60 to the low 60s north of Highway 84 to mid
60s/upper 60s closer to and along the coast.
MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Winds gradually diminishing over the marine area, but a moderate
southeasterly flow will continue through tonight. A lighter onshore
flow will then persist through most of the remainder of the week.
Winds and seas remain at SCEC levels today over most of the marine
area, and offshore over the Gulf zones into tonight, with winds of
15 to 20 knots and with seas still up to around 6 feet at times.
These conditions could be hazardous for small craft. Seas subside
somewhat Tuesday through Tuesday night and remain in the 2 to 3 foot
range through the remainder of the week. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 80 67 84 64 85 65 86 66 / 40 60 40 0 10 0 0 0
Pensacola 78 69 81 65 82 66 82 68 / 20 40 40 0 10 0 0 0
Destin 77 70 79 68 82 68 82 69 / 0 20 40 0 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 83 64 84 60 88 61 90 62 / 30 50 50 0 10 0 10 0
Waynesboro 81 62 84 60 87 62 88 63 / 60 70 30 0 20 0 10 10
Camden 83 63 82 60 86 60 88 63 / 40 60 40 0 10 0 10 0
Crestview 83 63 84 60 89 61 90 62 / 10 30 40 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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