Office: LWX

FXUS61 KLWX 100314
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1014 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE
DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND NORTHERN MARYLAND SEEMS
TO HAVE BEEN THE SWEET SPOT SO FAR FOR SNOW. PLEASE REFER TO
WBCPNSLWX FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. MEANWHILE...MIXING WITH
SLEET OR EVEN RAIN HAS CUT DOWN ON TOTALS SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND.

SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT FIGURE PRECIP WILL FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. DRY SLOT MAY NOT
BE ABLE TO PENETRATE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER NORTHEAST...AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NIGHT ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER
DEVELOPED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

HEAVIEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE
CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST GRAND TOTALS ARE PROGGED FOR NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
BALTIMORE AREA.

AS STORM CRANKS UP OFF THE COAST...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE.
GUSTS TO 45 MPH MAY AFFECT THE ENTIRE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND AN UPGRADE OF HEADLINES AT
LEAST ALONG THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY TO ADDRESS THESE CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DROP OR
BECOME STEADY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DP SFC LOW WL BE PULLING AWAY FM CWFA WED NGT...BUT THE WNDS WL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS THE P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT. /GFS 00Z PROG 975 MB!/
THERE/S EASILY 35 KT W/IN MIXED LYR. GDNC SUGGESTS CLSR TO 40 KT...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SFC BASED INVSN DVLPG. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
FCST WL ADVERTISE 20G35KT.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHSN WED NGT AS WELL...BUT THE BULK OF
THE ACCUM SNW WL BE DONE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE XCPTN WL BE FOR
THE WRN UPSLP AREAS...WHERE CAA AND SNW GROWTH FVRBL...SPCLY WED
NGT. INVSN HGTS START TO DROP THU...BUT WONT BE TRULY LIMITED TIL
THU NGT-ELY FRI.

IT/LL STILL BE BRZY AND COLD E OF THE APPLCHNS THU-THU NGT...BUT
EFFECTS OF HIPRES SLOWLY WL BE REALIZED. COLD POOL ALOFT WL IMPEDE
NW FLOW IN SCOURING OUT CLDS...BUT THAT SHUD TAKE PLACE BY LT THU.
TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO AVG...MAXT IN THE MID 30S/MIN-T IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WKND STILL DOMINATED BY A STRONG SRN JET STREAM. ANY DISTURBANCES
SHUD BE SURPRESSED SUFFICIENTLY TO MISS CWFA. INSTEAD...WE WL BE
INFLUENCED BY SFC HIPRES. THAT SHUD PROVIDE WELCOMED DRY CONDS THRU
THE WKND. W/ NW FLOW AND A DEEP SNWPACK...DONT XPCT A SGFNT WARMUP
THO. TEMPS THRUT THE PD WL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F...PRBLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE 30S.

CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED EITHER LT SUN OR ELY MON. ITS LOOKING WEAK
RIGHT NOW. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THOSE TRENDS WL CONT.
NONETHELESS...HV LEANED ON THE ELY SIDE /SUN/ IN PROGRESSIVE PTTN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AT KCHO FOR A TIME IN A DRY SLOT WHEN
IT WONT BE PRECIPITATING. HEAVIEST SNOW AT THE HUBS WITH POSSIBLE
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z-18Z WED. SNOW ENDS WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF 00Z THU. ALSO...NORTHWEST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WED...AND GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ASIDE FM WNDS...THU WL BE VFR AS WELL. DO XPCT BKN CIGS...BUT
BASES SHUD BE ABV 3K FT. CLDS SHUD SCT OUT FRI-SAT. A CLIPPER WL
COME BY SUN. WL NEED TO WATCH IT...RIGHT NOW THINK MVFR
RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY. SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

GLW XTNDD THRU THU AS 35 KT WELL W/IN REACH IN MIXED LYR. HIPRES
BLDS FRI...BUT SCA FLAGS MAY STILL LINGER. MORE TRANQUIL FOR THE
WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-501.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ502.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ021-030-
     031-040-042-050>057-501-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ025>029-
     036>039.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ052>054-
     501-503.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050-051-
     055-502-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/HTS
MARINE...PELOQUIN/BJL/HTS